Data Scientist II, Long Term Planning and Forecasting

We are seeking an experienced Data Scientist to drive scientific tooling supporting how Amazon's business customers interact with LTPF forecasts and plans. As a science leader within the LTPF, you will be responsible for building to the multi-year roadmap for customer engagement, ensuring that business stakeholders across Amazon can seamlessly access, understand, and act upon our forecasting outputs. In this role, you will manage the lifecycle of complex, cross-functional programs that transform how Operations, Stores, and Finance teams leverage LTPF insights for strategic decision-making. You will work with scientists, economists, engineers, and business customers to architect the customer interaction experience, including viewing capabilities, auditing tools, what-if analysis frameworks, and forecast intervention workflows. This role might be for you if you have interest and experience in: - Leading large, cross-functional planning and strategy workstreams that impact Amazon's topline growth - Defining multi-year program vision and strategy while balancing short-term execution - Regularly presenting to VP and SVP level leaders - Prioritizing operational excellence work alongside feature delivery on a roadmap - Showing strong business acumen with strategic, analytical, and critical thinking - Managing planning calendars and strategic review mechanisms - Driving organizational alignment across multiple teams and stakeholders Key job responsibilities As a Data Scientist in LTPF (Long-Term Planning & Forecasting): - You will develop causal inference models, automated explainability frameworks, and variance bridging methodologies that translate LTPF's forecasts and plans into actionable business intelligence. - Your work will enable leadership to understand why forecasts and actuals diverge, what is driving demand shifts, and how strategic decisions propagate through the planning ecosystem. - You will build automated Plan-vs-Actual and Actual-vs-Actual variance decomposition models that quantify the contribution of individual demand drivers to observed gaps across revenue, price, units, inventory, and capacity metrics at multiple granularities to serve audiences from working-level analysts to VP-level planning reviews cycles. - You will build and maintain a causal model library with standardized hypothesis generation and validation pipelines, applying techniques from causal inference, time-series econometrics, and Bayesian methods. Each model will include calibrated confidence scoring and reusable components that scale across worldwide marketplaces. - You will develop GenAI-powered narrative generation capabilities that synthesize quantitative variance outputs into human-readable performance summaries and design automated hypothesis ranking to determine which demand drivers are most responsible for observed forecast error. A day in the life Amazon offers a full range of benefits that support you and eligible family members, including domestic partners and their children. Benefits can vary by location, the number of regularly scheduled hours you work, length of employment, and job status such as seasonal or temporary employment. The benefits that generally apply to regular, full-time employees include: - Medical, Dental, and Vision Coverage - Maternity and Parental Leave Options - Paid Time Off (PTO) - 401(k) Plan If you are not sure that every qualification on the list above describes you exactly, we'd still love to hear from you! At Amazon, we value people with unique backgrounds, experiences, and skillsets. If you’re passionate about this role and want to make an impact on a global scale, please apply! About the team The Long-Term Planning and Forecasting (LTPF) organization is dedicated to answering some of Amazon's most important strategic questions: Where will Amazon's growth come from in the next year? What about over the next five years? Which product lines are poised to grow significantly? Are we investing appropriately in our infrastructure? How do our customers react to changes in prices, product selection, or delivery times? Are our infrastructure investments optimal for the level of demand we expect? Minimum qualifications - 2+ years of data scientist experience - 3+ years of data querying languages (e.g. SQL), scripting languages (e.g. Python) or statistical/mathematical software (e.g. R, SAS, Matlab, etc.) experience - 3+ years of machine learning/statistical modeling data analysis tools and techniques, and parameters that affect their performance experience - 1+ years of guiding and coaching a group of researchers experience - 1+ years of working with or evaluating AI systems experience - 1+ years of creating or contributing to mathematical textbooks, research papers, or educational content experience - Master's degree in Science, Technology, Engineering, or Mathematics (STEM), or experience working in Science, Technology, Engineering, or Mathematics (STEM) - Experience applying theoretical models in an applied environment Preferred qualifications - Ph.D. in Science, Technology, Engineering, or Mathematics (STEM) - Knowledge of machine learning concepts and their application to reasoning and problem-solving - Experience in Python, Perl, or another scripting language - Experience in defining and creating benchmarks for assessing GenAI model performance - Experience effectively communicating complex concepts through written and verbal communication Amazon is an equal opportunity employer and does not discriminate on the basis of protected veteran status, disability, or other legally protected status. Our inclusive culture empowers Amazonians to deliver the best results for our customers. If you have a disability and need a workplace accommodation or adjustment during the application and hiring process, including support for the interview or onboarding process, please visit https://amazon.jobs/content/en/how-we-hire/accommodations for more information. If the country/region you’re applying in isn’t listed, please contact your Recruiting Partner. The base salary range for this position is listed below. Your Amazon package will include sign-on payments and restricted stock units (RSUs). Final compensation will be determined based on factors including experience, qualifications, and location. Amazon also offers comprehensive benefits including health insurance (medical, dental, vision, prescription, Basic Life & AD&D insurance and option for Supplemental life plans, EAP, Mental Health Support, Medical Advice Line, Flexible Spending Accounts, Adoption and Surrogacy Reimbursement coverage), 401(k) matching, paid time off, and parental leave. Learn more about our benefits at https://amazon.jobs/en/benefits . USA, NY, New York - 153,400.00 - 207,500.00 USD annually USA, WA, Bellevue - 136,000.00 - 184,000.00 USD annually